If you haven’t seen the headlines already, the government just announced that 2025 saw an estimated record of 42.7 million tourists. This new all-time high brought in a whopping 9.5 trillion yen in revenue, which is a significant boon to the country’s stagnant economy. Alas, the additional revenue hasn’t been without its costs. As I’ve noted before, Japan’s popularity on the international stage has caused many of the mainstream areas to suffer from the adverse effects of overtourism. And, with the government setting its sights on a target of 60 million by 2030, this problem just isn’t going to solve itself.
This then raises the question. If Japan’s tourism infrastructure is already buckling under the weight of 42.7 million visitors, where the hell are we going to put another 17.3 million people? Already, the iconic allures of Kyoto and its ilk are packed to the brim with travelers from across the globe. Moreover, the massive influx of people, often from places with currencies that are strong against the weak yen, is pricing local people out of hotels and restaurants. Add in the fact that some bad actors treat Japan like a cultural playground without rules, and it’s no surprise why foreigner fatigue is on the rise lately here.
For well over a decade now, I’ve been beating the proverbial drum of exploring hidden gems in Japan. As I’ve often said, the authentic sense of culture that brings so many people to Japan is simply lost when you need to share the space with legions of other travelers, all vying for the very same Instagrammable vantage. While the mainstream allures are indeed all significant and worth their fame, that notoriety has now made it almost impossible to enjoy them. So, the only way to experience something that isn’t overly commodified for tourists is to venture off the beaten path to places that see far fewer travelers.
Progress Despite Best Efforts
Tragically, as I’ve outlined here in my rant on why I largely walked away from FAM trips and the creator gig economy, the powers that be simply have no idea what they are doing. Despite the efforts of JNTO and the other various regional DMOs, Japan simply seems unable to effectively leverage the existing tools out there to influence travelers’ preferences. Like with the parable of the streetlight effect whereby a drunk man searches for his lost keys where he can see them (and not where they probably are), the various entities tasked with promoting Japan’s off the beaten path destinations stick to what they know, not what actually works.
As an expert digital marketer, the answer to the question of what to do seems painfully obvious to me. However, at the same time, I know that it would be almost impossible to achieve due to all of the governmental red tape, deference to seniority (out of touch old geezers in other words), etc. that impair Japan’s ability to promote itself effectively. To the extent that any progress has been made, it has been despite the government’s best efforts. Not to toot my own horn here or anything, but a lot of the trailblazing has been done by content creators like myself trying to raise awareness of all of the amazing spots outside of mainstream destinations.
So, this brings us back to the question of where we are going to put 17.3 million more people in a country that is already struggling with overtourism. We certainly can’t put them in Kyoto or Osaka, as those cities are already filled to the brim with tourists. The only way that Japan can accommodate 60 million tourists (and let’s be honest, that KPI is only going to go up once the goal is achieved) is destination diversification. With much of Japan completely empty, we currently have a situation where a few hot spots are drowning in a deluge of international demand whereas the others are desperate for even a single drop of it.
Now, there are plenty of places out there who do not want visitors from abroad coming. Fair enough, I’ll be the first to say let’s leave those areas alone so that they don’t need to deal with the hassle of travelers who aren’t well versed in the rural customs of Japan. For the others though, they actually do want people to come but just don’t know how to make that happen in a digital age. So, people who would otherwise want to go to alternate destinations plan their Japan trips based on what they do know and thus default to the mainstream spots. When everyone does this, the result is unsparing overtourism.
Since I don’t want to be too negative, I will give the industry some credit where it’s due (though I think this is more of an organic halo effect than anything else). Nowadays, more and more people are venturing off of the so-called “Golden Route” that runs along the old Tokaido from Tokyo all the way down to Hiroshima and includes Kyoto and Osaka along the way. At the same time, these individuals often are on their second, third, or even twentieth visit to Japan and thus are accustomed to the country. The real bottleneck is with massive numbers of first-time visitors who are choosing Japan because the yen is comically weak.
So, while some steps have been made, the prerequisites to actually solve the problem of overtourism just aren’t yet in place in Japan. Moreover, just diversifying the demand isn’t enough. The very infrastructure itself is already pushed to its limits and, to make matters worse, it’s actually not going to get much better any time soon. For example, Japan’s overall English proficiency has been on a steady decline, with the country dropping to 96th out of 123 non-English-speaking countries and regions in the 2025 EF English Proficiency Index. When coupled with the service industry’s ongoing struggles to find workers (regardless of English ability), this makes Japan even less prepared to deal with the onslaught of tourism.
How AI Advancements Can Help
Personally, I have high hopes for AI and what it can do for the tourism industry. In addition to basically eliminating the language barrier, tools like ChatGPT and Grok can help people overcome what I’ve been calling the Awareness Problem for years. Like with Wikipedia, almost all destinations in Japan have ample documentation in English already online. However, one cannot search for that which they don’t already know exists. So, barring the Japan equivalent of a Wikipedia rabbit hole binge, there is no mechanism by which eager travelers can uncover someplace new. To the extent that it does happen is often up to the algorithmic whims of social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram Reels.
What is transformational about AI when it comes to destination discovery is that it can essentially bypass the limitations of a technology like search that relies on user queries. Instead, ChatGPT and the other models can function like a virtual concierge and recommend places that the user would never even think to enter queries for. This would allow for, say, an anime fan to ask for recommendations in Hokkaido that have links to a series like Golden Kamuy. From there, they may go on to discover the city of Asahikawa via additional prompts, and ultimately learn about the amazing Kawamura Kaneto Ainu Memorial Museum.
Though AI certainly helps with some of the ongoing issues, it alone is not going to be enough to truly solve the matter of overtourism. It may aid in easing some of the issues that Japan is encountering in the face of so many people coming here lately, but it’s not a solution unto itself. At the end of the day, the country can really only handle so many people and the infrastructure in place is already starting to fray. Even with the advent of robots and super intelligence, physics will only allow so many people to exist in a single space at a time. If you’ve seen photos of just how crowded that approach to Kiyomizu-dera can get, there’s not much room left.
My Take on the Target
Personally, as I’ve said time and time again, I think the government has it all wrong. Rather than setting a body count as a KPI, they should instead be focusing on total revenue from tourism. This way, they could work to attract a higher caliber of traveler who would be willing to visit the regional destinations and spend a lot more per person while doing so. To their credit, JNTO has actually been trying their best to do this with campaigns targeting travelers who spend over USD 10,000, but so long as the government is gunning for numbers like 60 million tourists by 2030, it’s little more than a drop in the bucket.
Whenever I mention that Japan should be focusing on more upscale, appreciative, and higher paying travelers, I inevitably get called classist, but the fact remains that mass tourism is like a swarm of locusts. I mean, just look at what has happened to places like Asakusa. Sure, these locations were already commodified for tourism before the number of international visitors started to hockey stick, but these days they feel more like theme parks than culturally rich destinations. Any sort of authenticity that you might find somewhere in a place like northern Akita is just sorely lacking at these mainstream allures.
At the end of the day, I am just one guy and all I can really do is help to get more and more people off of the Golden Route such that they might experience something “real” while visiting Japan, whatever that means. I have no control over policy and more and more am completely distancing myself from local governments due to how I react in the face of incompetence (i.e., become a toxic asshat). So, while I may have no power to influence the KPIs that the country sets for itself, what is within my wheelhouse is aiding individuals who want to experience a different side of Japan to actually do so.
What I can say is that the next four years are going to be wild. Not only are we going through the greatest technological advancement humans have ever had with AI, there is also a lot going on in the world of geopolitics. So long as the yen stays where it’s at, though, you can expect the hordes of mass tourists to continue to flock to Japan in droves. And, while a certain country with pandas might throw an international temper tantrum and tell its people not to come, you can bet your downward-dog-posing arse that they’ll be replaced by people from somewhere else.
The Only Alternative Left
With 17.3 million more people potentially coming to Japan by the end of 2030 than already are each year, I think we are now at the point where we need to cut our losses. While in the years leading up to the pandemic things might have been a bit different, I can no longer in good faith recommend people visit Kyoto and other mainstream spots. Even at off hours (like Fushimi Inari Taisha at night or in the very early morning), there now are just too many people there to properly appreciate the very things that attract travelers to these locales in the first place. As wonderful as they may be, it’s now necessary to look elsewhere.
Luckily, even if there are 60 million tourists visiting Japan each year by the end of 2030, the country is blessed with endless potential for discovery and adventure. So long as you steer clear of the places that the masses flock to, there is still ample opportunity to experience that authentic sense of history and culture that makes Japan worth visiting in the first place. While you will need to do your due diligence to look for it, there is so much to explore once you venture out into the countryside. And trust me when I say it’s the better side of Japan, as you’ll hopefully see for yourselves.
Until next time travelers…
